Latest population projections, updated to 2021, confirm the presence of a potential crisis scenario. A decreasing population: from 59.2 million as of January 1, 2021 to 57.9 million in 2030, to 54.2 million in 2050 and to 47.7 million in 2070.
The ratio between individuals of working age (15-64 years) and not (0-14 and 65 years and over) will go from about 3 to 2 in 2021 to about 1 to 1 in 2050.
The demographic crisis of the territories: a population decline is expected in 4 out of 5 municipalities within 10 years, in 9 out of 10 in rural municipalities.
The number of families is expected to grow but with an ever smaller mean number of members. Fewer couples with children, more couples without: by 2041 only 1 in 4 families made up of a couple with children; more than 1 in 5 will be childless.
By 2050 the over-65s will account for 34.9% of the population.
Young people up to 14 years of age, will account for 11.7% by 2050.
There will be an unbalanced ratio of over65s to teens, to the extent of about three to one.
A partial rebalancing in the population structure may only reveal itself in the long term, as the generations born in the baby boom years tend to die out. Based on the median scenario, the 15-64 year olds could return to 54.3% by 2070 while the over-65s decline back to 34.1%. Stable, however, is the youth population at 11.6/.
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